Lesson 10-Technology assessment and forecasting

Brief Summary

This session was about technology assessment and forecasting. We started off the lesson by watching a video on Siemens. It showed how Siemens was looking at the future major trends and how to capitalize on that. From a business perspective, you give people a sense of where they are going, that is marketing at its very best. It gives people an understanding of an issue as opposed to hard selling.

We were also shown a video on the Microsoft parody and the top 3 Knock-out inventions for the future. What interested me more was the latter. The third invention was nokia morph, which uses nanotechnology to reinvent the form and function of mobile devices. Maybe this is what Nokia needs to reestablish themselves as the leader in the mobile phones market. The second invention is Google Earth 2020. As per se, the idea of Big Brother is now close to reality.

The number 1 knock out invention is the salt water fuel. This could potentially the alternative to fossil fuels we are searching for.

Interesting Observations

“Look before, or you’ll find yourself behind.” Benjamin Franklin.

If you use the past as the basis for going forward, you are limiting what you can do. The only thing constant is change. We have to move with change in order to better our lives and society’s standard of living. I just recalled a great quote, it says ‘You can’t get rich studying history’ (something along that line). It greatly resonates with technology. You can’t become a multi-millionaire studying past historical inventions. You have to be a visionary when it comes to technology and innovation.

Prof was sharing his experiences as a business consultant. When it comes to strategic planning, he advised companies to free themselves from the shackles of the present. Only then, would they have clarity or else everything else will be a half-baked context.

Which brings me to the next point, some commonly used foresight methodology.

Some examples are backcasting, brainstorming, Delphi approach (identifying a panel of leading figures and find the correct solution), essays, gaming, SWOT analysis.

In my opinion, essays are the one that are propelling humans to greater heights. Similarities are drawn between it and science fiction. Books on time machines, invisibility cloaks are blurring the line between science fiction and reality. The do-ers of today has translated what are basically ideas into tangible innovations we see in our lives.

Surprisingly, games are also playing a part in helping us predict the future. Gaming has been the target of criticism and negativity. But has anyone wondered how it could play a vital role in shaping our future, given that technology advancement is so evident. (Compare computer games 5 years back and now.) Gaming can be used as a test bed for testing and assessing the feasibility of future technologies. It is becoming an increasingly important toll for foresight.

Another example would be stakeholder and SWOT analysis. Stakeholder analysis is where you find out issues from people who are currently working on any fresh technology and come out with a game plan to address their issue. Whereas for SWOT analysis, for every opportunity you look at, you might come across new opportunities that might impact your success.

Ratings

10/10. Last lesson on content. There is simply too much to cover in 3 hours a week. I should have taken summer term so I could spend more time reading up more on technology and world change!

I would like to end off with something Prof said in class. The seeds for tomorrow are already here. The roots are planted. It is up to us to figure them out.